For decades, greenhouse horticulture quietly scaled across global supply chains. In more recent years, a new generation of vertical farms, novel greenhouse models, and high-tech systems captured headlines and venture capital with promises of disruption. The novel CEA boom surged, then busted and entered the trough of disillusionment — and now the question is: what comes next?
To map this moment, I asked leaders from across the global CEA spectrum — including growers, researchers, technologists, and policy specialists — for their boldest predictions for 2026. Their insights reveal not just where the sector is headed, but how it’s evolving into something more integrated, resilient, and grounded.
Endre Thesen Harnes, Chief Commercial Officer, Avisomo (Norway)
“2026 will see the first large-scale integration of vertical farming into retailer supply chains.”
“We’re already seeing signs of this with partnerships like Avisomo and Coop Norway, or Schwarz Group’s joint venture vertical farms. These are not side projects; they are strategic shifts. Much like how major retailers brought coffee roasting in-house in the ’80s and ’90s, I believe food retailers will increasingly operate their own vertical farms. This allows retailers to capture supplier margins while aligning with their own-brand ambitions and ESG obligations. It’s a transformative model, not just for vertical farming, but for the entire food value chain.”
Dedovic Tanja, Senior Regional Specialist on Labor Mobility, IOM MENA (Egypt)
“Across the Middle East and North Africa, demand for skilled labor in Controlled Environment Agriculture is rising sharply. As climate pressures intensify, more governments and private actors are turning to CEA as part of their long-term food security strategies.”
“But technology alone won’t drive success. Investors increasingly view skilled labor as essential infrastructure — critical for reducing risk, maintaining operational stability, and protecting returns. There is an accelerating skilled labor gap for CEA in the MENA region and the most resilient projects will be those that treat workforce development with the same urgency as capital investment.” Read more about this here.
Ítalo Moraes Rocha Guedes, DSc, CEA Specialist, Embrapa (Brazil)
“My view is based on trends here in Brazil. Greenhouse horticulture and soilless systems will continue expanding across all regions, and not just for vegetables or ornamentals.”
“We are already seeing fruit crops like figs, passionfruit, table grapes, and berries gradually migrate into greenhouses during hot, rainy months, particularly in southern and central regions. Extreme weather events are becoming too disruptive, and this is pushing growers to adopt protected cultivation. However, high energy costs will also drive demand for alternative energy sources and climate-smart tech. Brazil’s transition won’t be driven by novelty; it will be driven by climate necessity.”
Christine R Gould, Founder & CEO, GIGA Futures (Switzerland/Global)
“In 2026, CEA will expand rapidly across emerging markets as countries double down on food sovereignty and security.”
“The most impactful projects will go far beyond leafy greens. We’ll see controlled environments used to grow desert-adapted crops, functional and medicinal plants, and high-value seedlings that support outdoor production. This isn't just about yield; it’s about nutrition, climate resilience, and regional food strategy.” “At the same time, gene editing and next-gen breeding tools will become critical enablers, tailoring crops for compact growth, faster cycles, and higher nutrient density indoors. And the smartest projects will integrate into larger water and energy ecosystems, using circular resource strategies and locally adapted technologies to multiply their value.”
Dr. Eri Hayashi, Vice President, Japan Plant Factory Association (JPFA) (Japan)
“In 2026, Japan’s plant factories will move beyond high productivity and into precision phenotype control, powered by AI, closed-loop systems, and real-time data.” “These farms are evolving into hybrid platforms, not just for food production, but for healthcare, education, biotech, and urban resilience. They’ll integrate with cities as resource-autonomous nodes, using digital twins to simulate crop development and create new economic value. In many ways, the line between agriculture, biotech, and public infrastructure is beginning to blur.”
Gretchen Schimelpfenig, PE, PE, Executive Director, GLASE, Cornell University (USA)
“The U.S. greenhouse industry is heading into a steep slowdown in new construction. We’re seeing federal policy changes around tariffs and grant funding that have chilled investment, especially among smaller players.” “Instead, 2026 will be the year of retrofits. Growers will focus on repairing aging infrastructure, phasing in advanced lighting controls, and using sensors and automation software to cut costs and improve efficiency. The smarter operators are auditing their systems now to uncover savings that don’t require massive capex.”
Christopher Higgins, President, Hort Americas (USA)
“Controlled Environment Agriculture is, in many ways, returning to where it began. When I entered the industry 30 years ago, it was dominated by large-scale greenhouses producing staple crops like tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers. I think it will go back to that and stay that way for a while.” “After a wave of overextension in vertical farming, we’re seeing a return to this consolidated, capital-efficient model—fewer players, but more stability. Unless there are major shifts in policy, consumer behavior, or market incentives, this structure will persist.”
Leo Marcelis, Head of Horticulture and Product Physiology, Wageningen University & Research (Netherlands)
“Now that the hype has passed and many vertical farms have gone bankrupt, the sector is slowly rising again—wiser and more focused.”
“Costs are still relatively high, so the best opportunities lie in high-value crops where added value justifies the premium. It’s critical to keep systems as simple as possible and ensure a clear market exists for what’s being produced. Complexity without demand is a dead end. The next phase must prioritize economic realism and targeted innovation.”
Derek Smith, Executive Director, Resource Innovation Institute (USA)
“In 2026, we’ll see the first announcement of a large, high-tech greenhouse cluster in the U.S., colocated with a data center.” “This isn’t just about saving energy. It’s about designing ecosystems where agriculture and digital infrastructure share energy flows, climate control, and water systems. This is the future of climate-smart planning, and it’s how CEA can scale responsibly and profitably.”
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Dr. Paul Gauthier, CEA Academic and Researcher (Australia/Global)
“After five years of turbulence—closures, overpromises, and pivots—I believe 2026 will be a more realistic and enthusiastic year for CEA.” “Yes, we’ll continue to see restructuring among first-generation vertical farms, but we must acknowledge their legacy. They paved the way for smarter design, better nutrient management, and circular systems. In Australia, major assets management company Centuria has taken a controlling position in the commercial greenhouse sector. Consequently, 2026 is poised to be the year of expansion in Australia, paving the way for more smart investments in the global industry.”
“The next wave will be grounded in lessons learned and built for the long-term.”
Giovanni Angiolini, Regional AgTech Advisor (UAE)
“Despite the big announcements and long-term food security narratives, 2026 will likely see a downscaling of CEA investment in the Gulf region.” “Several large projects are facing serious headwinds: high energy consumption, unreliable offtake agreements, water management challenges, and a lack of coordinated stakeholder governance. Without stronger alignment between governments, retailers, investors, and tech providers, capital will remain cautious—and rightly so.”
Germán Fernández Hidalgo, Agronomist, Consultant, and Influencer (Almería, Spain)
“In Almería, we’re reaching the limits of traditional greenhouse systems. Thrips parvispinus has become the most disruptive pest in pepper crops and is now adapting to others like cucumber. Farmers once relied on winter to suppress pests — but parvispinus is now active even near 0°C, hiding deep in plant crowns. The seasonal reset is gone.”
“Climate change is intensifying this pressure with longer droughts, shorter winters, and more extreme heat. Meanwhile, Europe’s tightening regulations are reducing available tools, even as growers compete with countries operating under looser rules.”
“In 2026, growers won’t adopt CEA because it’s new — they’ll adopt it because it’s necessary. Stable climates, tighter biosecurity, and predictable production will be essential.
Dr. Jouke Campen, International Project Manager, Wageningen University & Research (Netherlands)
“As more countries seek food security and climate-resilient production, CEA will expand across more crop types. But the bottleneck is labor.”
“Automation and mechanization will be essential. Labor is still the highest operating cost, and in many regions it’s increasingly scarce. Whether it’s robot-assisted harvesting or AI-powered irrigation, 2026 will be a tipping point for mechanized solutions going mainstream.”
Nona Yehia, Co-Founder & CEO, Vertical Harvest Farms (USA)
“CEA will stop defending itself as just an ag-tech vertical and step fully into its role as essential civic infrastructure.”
“We’re already seeing food systems linked to public health outcomes—‘Food Is Medicine’ programs, workforce inclusion, measurable nutrition. Farms won’t just be judged on output; they’ll be measured by community resilience. AI will quietly connect the dots between biology, energy, labor, and health outcomes, making the system auditable and trustworthy. The CEA operators that succeed in 2026 will be those who act like stewards, not startups.”
Sam Bertram, CEO & Co-Founder, OnePointOne (USA)
“We’re finally climbing the Slope of Enlightenment. The vertical farming hype cycle brought massive pain, but it also brought clarity.”
“2026 will be about demonstrating superior product quality, securing economics suitable for project financing, and staying laser-focused on geography and crop selection. The old skin has been shed. The CEA product is too strong—clean, local, nutritious—to be denied its long-term place in the food system.”
Henry Gordon-Smith, CEO, Agritecture (New York City)
“In 2026, Controlled Environment Agriculture will evolve beyond being treated as a retrofit. It will be designed from the beginning — a core feature of masterplanned developments rather than an afterthought.”
“Think data centers with integrated farms. Smart cities with modular greenhouse nodes. Regional food hubs colocated with waste-to-energy plants, and public institutions. But also: agritourism hotels with on-site production, free zones for ag-tech innovation, and entire new cities built with circular food systems embedded from the ground up.”
“At Agritecture, we’re already working with cities, developers, and institutional clients to make this vision real — embedding CEA into planning processes both physically and digitally, and redefining how food infrastructure is planned, financed, and scaled in the 21st century.”
A huge thank you to the 18 global experts who joined me to share their insights for this piece. Their predictions reflect not only regional realities, but a shared vision for how CEA can evolve — into something more resilient, more integrated, and more impactful in 2026.
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